Spring has arrived in New York, and with it comes a fresh crop of economic crosswinds, regulatory developments, and federal budget drama that credit unions will need to navigate.
Here’s what’s moving and what’s looming.
Your Members’ Wallets: Tariffs, Energy Prices, and a Labor Market on Pause
If it feels like your members are getting squeezed from every direction right now, that’s because they are. A convergence of tariff policy, geopolitical disruption, and a sluggish labor market is creating real pressure on household budgets. And credit unions, as the original choice for affordability, are in a unique position to help.
The Iran conflict and energy prices
- The U.S.-Israeli military operations in Iran have disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply flows, sending energy prices sharply higher
- The national average for a gallon of regular gas topped $4.06 as of April 1, the highest since 2022, with diesel at $5.45. For context, the national average was $2.81 per gallon in early January
- Contrary to the Federal Reserve (which forecasts inflation to hit 2.7% this year), the OECD projects U.S. inflation could reach 4.2% in 2026, well above the 2.68% average in 2025. The February Consumer Price Index came in at 2.4%, but economists expect the March reading (due April 10) to jump significantly as energy costs work through the economy
- Higher fuel costs hit low- and middle-income households hardest, acting as what Moody’s economists have called a “tax on households” that reduces real disposable income
Tariffs are still in the mix
- In February, the Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under IEEPA, ruling tariff authority rests with Congress. The administration imposed new Section 122 tariffs of 15% the same day
- Sector-specific tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, pharmaceuticals, and copper remain in place under separate statutory authority
- Consumers are now bearing roughly 55% of total tariff costs, up from about 20% earlier in the cycle, as pre-tariff inventory buffers have been exhausted
The labor market: technically fine, actually flat
- The March jobs report showed 178,000 jobs added—well above the 59,000 expected—but the headline obscures a broader stagnation
- The economy has added just 260,000 total jobs over the past 12 months, an average of about 22,000 per month. Federal government employment continued to decline
- The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%, but largely because nearly 400,000 people left the labor force. The number of workers who’ve stopped looking for jobs jumped by 144,000 in a single month
- Wage growth slowed to 3.5% year-over-year, the lowest since May 2021, while hours worked also declined
- With inflation above target and energy prices surging, markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady through the end of the year, with virtually no probability of a cut at the April FOMC meeting
What this means for credit unions
Add it up—higher gas prices, rising food costs, tariff pass-through, flat wages, and an uncertain job market—and your members are navigating the most challenging affordability environment in years. If they’re asking why everything costs more, the honest answer is: it’s complicated, and it’s coming from multiple directions at once.
But here’s the thing: this is exactly the environment credit unions were built for. Credit unions have been the OGs of affordability since long before “OG” was a thing. Lower loan rates, fewer fees, higher savings yields, and a not-for-profit structure that puts members first: that’s not a marketing pitch, it’s a business model. When a member’s household budget gets tighter, the difference between a credit union’s auto loan rate and a bank’s isn’t a rounding error. It’s a car payment they can actually make.
FY2027 Budget Proposal: CDFI Fund Cuts (Take Two)
- The White House released its FY2027 budget proposal on Friday, and for the second year running, it proposes cutting $204.5 million in discretionary awards for the Community Development Financial Institutions Fund
- Nearly 900 credit union branches serve as the sole financial institution in their census tracts making CDFI funding a lifeline, not a luxury
- The budget also includes an industry opposed administrative fee on lenders participating in SBA guaranteed business lending programs
- If this feels like déjà vu, that’s because it is. Last year’s budget attempted the same thing, and after the New York Credit Union Association and other industry partners fought these cuts, Congress ultimately funded the CDFI Fund for FY2026
- Expect the New York Credit Union Association to fight as fiercely for New York’s credit unions this time around
NCUA Releases 2025 Annual Report
- The NCUA released its 2025 Annual Report on April 1 and no, it wasn’t a joke
- Chairman Hauptman highlighted that the Share Insurance Fund and the credit union system remained well-capitalized with sufficient liquidity throughout 2025
- The agency touted “millions in cost savings” delivered to credit unions through its reorganization and efficiency efforts
- Key priorities carrying into 2026 include: the ongoing agency reorganization, GENIUS Act implementation, and developing a simplified regulatory framework
- The report documents NCUA’s performance against its 2022–2026 Strategic Plan, which is being replaced by the new 2026–2030 plan
NCUA Board Meeting: April 9
- The NCUA Board meets Thursday, April 9 (livestreamed here) with a packed agenda that includes:
- Brokered and Reciprocal Deposits: A briefing on a topic that’s been a persistent pain point for credit unions managing liquidity. Watch for signals about whether the NCUA is considering regulatory changes in this space
- Deregulation Project Update: The Board will review the ongoing deregulation initiative, now eight rounds deep
- 2026–2030 Strategic Plan: The new strategic plan will set the agency’s direction for the next five years
- 2026 Annual Performance Plan: How the NCUA plans to measure itself against those strategic goals
Mark Your Calendar: 2026 State Governmental Affairs Conference
Advocacy is a year-round effort, but this is the main event for New York’s credit union movement. The 2026 State Governmental Affairs Conference is coming up April 27–28 at the Renaissance Albany Hotel. This is your chance to connect directly with the lawmakers, regulators, and insiders who shape New York’s financial services landscape.
State-level legislative decisions increasingly affect every credit union in New York—state and federally chartered alike. If we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu. Registration closes April 22, so don’t wait.
Let’s Make This Useful
I want this blog to be as relevant as possible to the people reading it. So:
- Got a topic you’d like me to break down?
- Burning desire to know more about that headline you read the other day?
- Have an industry-related question you want addressed?
Reach out to me at jeremy.newman@nycua.org. Let’s talk.
Until Next Time
From the big picture to the fine print, we’ve got you covered. Thanks for reading, and CU in the next post.